What Is PATTERN and Why Does It Matter
If your loved one is in federal custody, one tool shapes nearly every major decision about their time inside. It is called PATTERN. It stands for Prisoner Assessment Tool Targeting Estimated Risk and Needs. The Bureau of Prisons uses it to decide who qualifies for early release, which programs someone can access and where they will be housed.
The First Step Act, signed into law in December 2018, required the Department of Justice to create a risk and needs assessment system for federal prisons. PATTERN was the result. The idea was straightforward: use data to identify who poses a low risk of reoffending and reward rehabilitation efforts with real, tangible benefits.
In practice, PATTERN has enormous power over an incarcerated person's life. A low score opens doors. A high score closes them. Families and incarcerated people who understand how this tool works are far better positioned to advocate for fair treatment and meaningful change.
How the PATTERN Algorithm Actually Works
PATTERN is a scoring system. It runs automatically using data BOP already has in its records. There is no interview, no conversation and no human review at the time the score is generated. The algorithm crunches the numbers and produces a risk level.
There are actually two separate PATTERN tools running simultaneously. One predicts the risk of general recidivism, meaning committing any new crime after release. The other predicts the risk of violent recidivism specifically. Both scores matter and both influence decisions about programming and release.
BOP recalculates PATTERN scores regularly, not just once at intake. This is critically important. It means a score can go up or down depending on behavior, program participation and time served. An incarcerated person is not locked into their initial score for the duration of their sentence.
The four risk levels assigned by PATTERN are Minimum, Low, Medium and High. Most earned time credit benefits under the First Step Act are reserved for people scored at Minimum or Low risk. Getting to one of those two categories is the practical goal for anyone trying to access the law's benefits.
What Factors Go Into Your PATTERN Score
This is where the algorithm gets complicated. PATTERN weighs dozens of individual data points. Some of those factors are static, meaning they cannot change. Others are dynamic, meaning they can and do change with time and behavior.
Static Factors
Static factors are baked in from the moment someone enters the system. They include things like:
- Age at first arrest
- Number of prior convictions
- History of violence in prior offenses
- The nature of the current offense
- Age at the time of sentencing
These factors cannot be changed. An older person with no prior record will score better on static factors than a younger person with a lengthy history, regardless of what happens after sentencing. This is one of the most common criticisms of PATTERN. It can lock people into elevated risk levels based on their past before they have any chance to demonstrate change.
Dynamic Factors
Dynamic factors are where incarcerated people have real agency. These include:
- Participation in evidence-based recidivism reduction programs
- Educational achievement while incarcerated
- Vocational training completion
- Disciplinary infractions or the absence of them
- Employment within the facility
- Drug treatment program completion
- Cognitive behavioral programming
Active, consistent program participation is the single most powerful way to move a PATTERN score in the right direction. Disciplinary infractions, even minor ones, can push scores up. Staying clean, attending programs and maintaining good conduct creates a documented record that the algorithm reads as lower risk.
One thing families should know: program participation is only captured in PATTERN if it is correctly entered into BOP's internal data systems. Documentation errors happen. We will address what to do about that below.
How PATTERN Connects to Earned Time Credits
The First Step Act created a system called Earned Time Credits, often abbreviated as ETCs. These are the most valuable benefit the law offers. Eligible incarcerated people can earn 10 days of time credit for every 30 days of successful program participation. People who are deemed "minimum" or "low" risk under PATTERN can earn 15 days per 30-day period.
Those credits can be applied toward early transfer to prerelease custody, which includes halfway houses and home confinement, or in some cases toward early release itself. The difference between a Minimum risk score and a Medium risk score can mean months of additional time served.
The connection is direct and consequential. You cannot earn time credits at the enhanced rate without a favorable PATTERN score. This is why understanding and actively working to improve that score is not an abstract exercise. It has real impact on when someone comes home.
There are eligibility restrictions. Certain offense categories are excluded from earning ETCs under the First Step Act regardless of PATTERN score. Offenses involving terrorism, sex crimes and some violent offenses carry restrictions. Families should consult with an attorney familiar with federal sentencing to get clarity on whether their loved one is eligible. Our reentry resource hub can help connect families with legal support organizations.
PATTERN and Facility Placement Decisions
PATTERN does not just affect time credits. It shapes where someone is housed. BOP uses risk and needs assessment data as one input in facility designation decisions. Lower-risk individuals are considered better candidates for lower-security facilities, camp placements and residential reentry programs.
Facility placement matters enormously for family connection. A person placed in a facility hours from their family faces much greater barriers to visits, phone contact and the kind of community support that actually reduces recidivism. A favorable PATTERN score increases the likelihood of being designated closer to home or at a lower-security level.
It also affects access to programming. Higher-security facilities often have more limited program offerings. Lower-security facilities and camps tend to have more robust educational and vocational resources. A better PATTERN score can create a compounding effect: lower-security placement means better program access, which means more documented participation, which means a better score over time.
Can You Challenge or Improve Your PATTERN Score
Yes. Both challenging errors and actively working to improve scores are real options. They require effort, documentation and persistence, but they are not out of reach.
Step 1: Request Your PATTERN Score
Incarcerated people can request information about their current PATTERN score through their case manager. This is not always easy to obtain, and case managers are often overloaded, but the request can and should be made in writing. Keeping a copy of all written communications with BOP staff is essential.
Step 2: Review the Underlying Data
Because PATTERN pulls from BOP's internal records, errors in those records create errors in the score. Program completions that were never entered, disciplinary incidents that were resolved or overturned but still appear, and demographic data errors can all inflate a score unfairly.
Incarcerated people have the right to review their central file. Requesting a central file review allows someone to identify and document discrepancies. Errors should be formally challenged through the BOP Administrative Remedy process, documented in writing at every step.
Step 3: Build a Consistent Program Record
The most powerful long-term strategy is consistent program participation. Every completed course, every certificate earned, every job assignment held is data that PATTERN reads. Creating a personal record of all completions, including dates, program names and supervising staff, gives a foundation for challenging any data entry errors that arise.
Cognitive behavioral programs in particular carry significant weight because they are specifically classified as evidence-based recidivism reduction programs under the First Step Act. These include programs like the Resolve to Stop the Violence Program, the Challenge Program and similar BOP offerings. Taking these programs as early and as consistently as possible is a direct investment in a better PATTERN outcome.
A Note on PATTERN's Known Limitations
PATTERN has faced serious criticism from researchers, civil rights organizations and advocacy groups. Critics have raised concerns about racial disparities embedded in the algorithm's static factors. Because the tool weighs criminal history heavily, and because communities of color have been disproportionately affected by over-policing and prosecution, the algorithm may perpetuate rather than correct systemic inequities.
DOJ has revised PATTERN multiple times since its initial rollout, and advocacy organizations continue to push for greater transparency and equity in how it is applied. Families and advocates should know this history. It is part of understanding why fighting for accurate data and fair scoring matters.
What Families Can Do Right Now
Families are not passive observers in this process. There are concrete steps you can take to support your loved one's PATTERN outcomes from the outside.
- Encourage program participation: Use calls and visits to reinforce the importance of attending every available program. Motivation and connection from family matter.
- Keep track of completions: Ask your loved one to send you copies or written records of every program certificate they earn. Build an outside archive in case BOP records are ever disputed.
- Learn the Administrative Remedy process: If your loved one believes their score reflects errors, the Administrative Remedy process is the formal channel. BOP has a specific procedure involving informal resolution first, then formal BP-8, BP-9, BP-10 and BP-11 forms at escalating levels.
- Connect with reentry planning early: PATTERN scores factor into halfway house and home confinement decisions. Starting reentry planning well before release, including identifying a stable address and employment prospects, supports the case for lower-security prerelease placement.
- Seek legal support: Organizations like the Federal Public Defender's office, legal aid societies and nonprofit prisoner rights organizations can help identify scoring errors and advocate for correction. Visit our resource hub for connections to advocacy and legal support networks.
If your loved one is struggling emotionally under the weight of a high PATTERN score or uncertainty about their future, please know that mental health support is available. Many BOP facilities have Psychology Services departments. Families experiencing crisis can also contact the 988 Suicide and Crisis Lifeline by calling or texting 988.
The system is complex. It can feel designed to be impenetrable. But understanding PATTERN, fighting for accurate data and building a strong program record are all within reach. Knowledge is the first step, and you have already taken it.